¶1:

How many of Donald Trump's Cabinet appointments will not be confirmed? For the purposes of this question, the following offices are considered the only cabinet positions:

• Secretary of State

• Secretary of the Treasury

• Secretary of Defense

• Attorney General

• Secretary of the Interior

• Secretary of Agriculture

• Secretary of Commerce

• Secretary of Labor

• Secretary of Health and Human Services

• Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

• Secretary of Transportation

• Secretary of Energy

• Secretary of Education

• Secretary of Veterans Affairs

• Secretary of Homeland Security

• Trade Representative

• Director of National Intelligence

• Director of the Office of Management and Budget

• Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy

• Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency

• Administrator of the Small Business Administration

¶2:

For a nomination to be considered made, it must be formally submitted to the Senate and reflected in the congressional record as such. For the purposes of this question, a nomination is not confirmed if the nomination is rejected, withdrawn, returned to the president under paragraph 6 of rule XXXI of the standing rules of the Senate, or not acted upon by the Senate for 100 days. For the purposes of this question, a nomination is confirmed once the Senate transmits to the president that the nomination has been confirmed and the president commissions the cabinet officer.

¶3:

Once a nomination to an above-listed position is confirmed, failure to confirm a later appointment to that position will not count. If a recess appointment is made to one of the listed posts and no nomination is made to that post within 100 days of the recess appointment, any failure to confirm a nomination to that post after the 100 days will not count. If a nomination is submitted to the Senate for a post where a recess appointment had been made the normal rules will control.

¶4:
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. The unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.