Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026
Plus
1
Ṁ502026
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is a verified failure (valued >$2M) of a semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to a Tier-1 AI country (US, EU, Japan, South Korea), whether it be a delay, the chips being outright stolen or so on. Resolution based on shipping company reports, customs data, or credible news sources.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027
21% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
39% chance
What will be US tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors on July 1st, 2025?
Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?
20% chance
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
52% chance
Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?
10% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
92% chance
In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
-
Will a Chinese company make and release a semiconductor equal to or less than 5nm by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance