Context:

On January 8, 2023, an attempted coup took place in Brazil, leading to numerous investigations and arrests. Some of the individuals involved have since fled the country.

The Argentine government has stated that it will assess asylum requests from these Brazilian fugitives on an individual basis. The assessment will be conducted by Conare, the commission responsible for handling asylum applications in Argentina. This process involves evaluating the legality and feasibility of each request, which could delay Brazil's efforts to extradite the fugitives.

Argentine spokesperson Manuel Adorni confirmed that no premature decisions would be made, emphasizing the need to follow legal procedures. Despite Brazil's request to locate and extradite 143 fugitives believed to be in Argentina, the Argentine Ministry of Security reported no current knowledge or alerts regarding these individuals.

The Brazilian authorities have been actively pursuing the fugitives, with a recent operation recapturing 50 individuals while identifying others possibly residing in Argentina. The final decision on granting asylum lies with the Argentine President, Javier Milei, who is an ally of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2024, there is official confirmation that Argentina has granted asylum or shelter to any of the fugitives involved in the January 8th, 2023 attempted coup in Brazil. Official confirmation includes statements from the Argentine government and credible news sources. If no such confirmation is available by the end of 2024, the market will resolve to "No".