Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?
Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?
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Ṁ2342030
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Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has recently been declared ineligible for elective offices by the country's electoral authority. Bolsonaro was charged of misuse of powers in the period before the 2022 general elections, when he seeked reelection.
Due to legislation and electoral calendar particulars, the sentence would allow Bolsonaro to run again in 2030, aged 75, thus staying away from three elections until then (one of them being the 2026 presidential run). However, some unfoldings of the case in other courts could make Bolsonaro ineligible also for the 2030 general elections.
This market resolves YES if any such decision by a collegiate judicial or audit court takes place, banning Bolsonaro also from the 2030 elections - even if further appeals are still possible. It resolves NO otherwise.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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