Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?
Plus
15
Ṁ3692032
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Reversible computing (see links below), is a way of making a computer more energy efficient by making circuits inside "reversible" in that they avoid losing entropy to their environment. Extrapolating trends, [3] the current rate of efficiency improvements will become unsustainable by around 2030.
This market resolves to "YES" if on or before December 31 2031, a computer system that uses reversible computing is available on the market for consumers to purchase. The question of what exactly constitutes "reversibility" is a bit murky, as we may see computers which have some components that are reversible. Here are a few criteria I consider important:
* The computer is marketed as "reversible" or "adiabatic"
* Media reports and experts unaffiliated with the manufacturer fail to dispute that the computer is reversible
* The main computational units of the computer are more energy-efficient than we would expect analogous parts of a non-reversible computer to be.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversible_computing
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adiabatic_circuit
[3]: https://youtu.be/rVmZTGeIwnc?t=231
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
35% chance
Who will release a GPT-4o comparable model in 2024?
Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?
43% chance
Will the first optical computer be sold on the consumer market before 2025?
11% chance
Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?
48% chance
Will a conscious computer be built before 2030?
45% chance
Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?
53% chance
Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?
49% chance
Will Non-invasive Brain Computer Interfaces Become Common By 2040?
48% chance
Will Brain-Computer interfaces be widespread by 2035?
45% chance