Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?
Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?
Basic
19
Ṁ2324
2034
76%
chance

Resolves YES if at least one shipment of legal recreational cannabis arrives in a country from another. The whole transaction must be fully legal in both the exporting and importing country – in particular, they must both allow international trade, as opposed to just domestic trade; a transaction that resolves this YES must go through normal export and import channels and not constitute smuggling. Just some dude flying from Thailand to Canada with legally-purchased cannabis in his backpack doesn't count.

The shipment needs to arrive at the destination country before 2034-01-01 00:00 local time for the question to resolve YES. The amount and value of the shipment don't matter, as long as the transaction is explicitly an import of recreational pot.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules