In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
Basic
8
Ṁ2842031
66%
Helped with >80% confidence
23%
Helped with >60% confidence
6%
Uncertain
5%
Harmed with >60% confidence
0.6%
Harmed with >80% confidence
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
61% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
54% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
31% chance
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
15% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
31% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025?
28% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
7% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
19% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
20% chance