When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?
When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?
Basic
15
Ṁ4192065
5%
2023-2024
39%
2025-2034
31%
2035-2044
10%
2045-2054
6%
2055-2064
5%
2065 or later
4%
According to mainichi.jp, the probability of a major Nanki Trough earthquake is now estimated at around 30% within 10 years, 50-60% within next 20 years, 70 to 80% within 30 years and around 90% within next 40 years.
This question will resolve by the official release of the japan meteorological agancy (www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake) that shows the magnitude reach 9.0 and maximum seismic intensity reach 7.
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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