US Supreme Court strikes down Tennessee's gender-affirming care ban in United States v. Skrmetti?
US Supreme Court strikes down Tennessee's gender-affirming care ban in United States v. Skrmetti?
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The Supreme Court heard arguments in December 2024 and is expected to issue a ruling by June 2025. At stake is whether Tennessee’s Senate Bill 1, which prohibits gender-affirming medical treatment for transgender minors, violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment or other federal protections. A decision could set a national precedent for similar laws in other states.
Resolves to YES if the Court rules that the Tennessee ban is unconstitutional or blocks it from taking effect. Resolves to NO if the Court upholds the law.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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