Will the Welch-Manchin amendment for Supreme Court term limits pass either house of Congress in any form by Feb 1, 2025?
Basic
7
Ṁ160
Feb 2
15%
chance

Either the House or the Senate would have to pass of any sort of constitutional amendment reforming Supreme Court terms - and that would be sufficient to resolve this YES. We haven't had a constitutional amendment since 1992, so I made the criteria really lenient.

See: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/07/supreme-court-term-limits-amendment-manchin-welch/

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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