Will the European Common Frog (Rana temporaria) become extinct in the current century?
Will the European Common Frog (Rana temporaria) become extinct in the current century?
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The European Common Frog, a.k.a. Common Frog or Grass Frog, is a semi-aquatic amphibian found throughout much of Europe. This market will resolve YES if the European Common Frog is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_frog
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Least Concern
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/173101508/89705642
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
For comparisons with other species, you can find here more markets about species extinction risks:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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