Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?
Basic
2
Ṁ112032
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution will be based on whether there is media consensus that any actions undertaken by politically motivated guerrilla groups represent an insurgency. I will not bet on this market. I'm open to suggestions that refine the resolution criteria before 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
Will the US see a large-scale riot by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will There be a Civil War, Violent Revolution, or Insurgency in USA by 2030?
21% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
33% chance
Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?
51% chance
Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)
24% chance
Will Matt Welch's prediction of deadly political violence in the US in 2024 hold up?
29% chance
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
9% chance
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
58% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
60% chance