This will resolve as yes if there is another shooting that is widely discussed as matching the profile of or drawing inspiration from the UHC CEO’s assassination before Jan 1, 2026.
The judgment will be made based on credible news reports that explicitly link a future event to inspiration from Mangione (e.g., explicit inspiration in a manifesto, or the intentional use of obviously inspired symbolism like the words on the bullet casings). It will resolve as no at the end of December 31 2024, AoE otherwise.
A genuine attempt will count as a yes. I will judge this by whether or not the perpetrator is charged with attempted murder. If the perpetrator is at large when the market resolves, I will use my best judgement to determine from new reports if the perpetrator would be charged with attempted murder if caught.
Note: update to clarify resolution criteria to be more specific about the end date and clarify that an unsuccessful attempt counts.
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3.00@JussiVilleHeiskanen good point! I updated the description to clarify that a credible attempt counts, where credible is grounded out in whether it would be appropriate to charge the perpetrator with attempted murder (e.g., a threat wouldn’t count but a botched attempt would).