Will the Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) become extinct in the current century? | Manifold

Will the Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) become extinct in the current century?

Plus

15

Ṁ785

2099

27%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will resolve YES if the Giant Panda, also known as Panda Bear, is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/712/121745669

Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Extinction Risk

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 30% order

Feels like this should be about 5%. Vulnerable species typically are 10% in the next 100 years, but the giant panda has more individuals and much more cultural significance than a normal vulnerable species.

Can you please define your use of the term, “extinct.”

@suzumebatchi According to Wikipedia, Extinction is the termination of a species by the death of its last member. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction

@ExtinctionRisk

Is that the definition you are using for this market?

@suzumebatchi yes

@ExtinctionRisk

Do cryogenically preserved fertilized embryos count as individuals? …asking for a friend in Alabama. 😏

@suzumebatchi Difficult question. I don't know.

Related questions

Will the Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) become extinct in the current century?

-16% 1d33% chance

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Tiger (Panthera tigris) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Bonobo (Pan paniscus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Bornean Orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Western Gorilla (Gorilla gorilla) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Leopard (Panthera pardus) become extinct in the current century?

Related questions

Will the Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Bonobo (Pan paniscus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Bornean Orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Western Gorilla (Gorilla gorilla) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Tiger (Panthera tigris) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Leopard (Panthera pardus) become extinct in the current century?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules