
Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet before end of 2025
Plus
15
Ṁ1080Dec 31
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The market resolves yes if either of them has a C-level title at Google or Alphabet.
Board seat doesn't count
Adviser doesn't count
A simple announcement of a future change doesn't trigger yes - one or both of them must have actually assumed the role.
duration: as long as the hold the position for at least one day it counts - even if they then quit/are fired or stop doing it for some reason afterwards
This must have happened before 12/31/2025
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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