Will New Zealand eradicate mustelids, rats, and possums by 2050?
Will New Zealand eradicate mustelids, rats, and possums by 2050?
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New Zealand wants to eradicate foreign species that damage the ecology. Will they be successful by their target date?
https://www.doc.govt.nz/nature/pests-and-threats/predator-free-2050/why-predator-free-2050/#
I will resolve according to statements by the NZ government, unless there are widespread credible claims that the government is lying.
Don't know how to set the correct date on my phone so will update when I'm at a computer. (Manifold, if you're reading this, please fix.)
I will make a small initial bet to move the market where I think it should be, but after that I won't bet, just in case there is controversy over whether the government is lying. (I don't expect this to be an issue but better safe than sorry.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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