Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI producing a formalized gold medal (see description)

Basic

Ṁ810

2100

63%

< 1 week

< 1 month

< 4 months

< 1 year

10%

< 2 years

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 25 years

>= 25 years

This market concerns about two events
* A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

* B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com

This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer. For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year". If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week". It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.

I will use first moment that either event is officially publicly announced in a blog post, press release, academic paper or preprint, article, website or the like, excluding any unofficial leaks.

I will not bet on this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Math

#IMO Grand Challenge

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