Following Donald Trump's recent victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, speculation arises about whether Jair Bolsonaro, former President of Brazil, will attend the inauguration in January 2025. Bolsonaro has previously expressed intentions to attend such an event, stating, "Estarei na posse do Trump" ("I will be at Trump's inauguration").
However, Bolsonaro's current legal situation may impede his travel plans. His passport was confiscated by order of Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) amid investigations into alleged coup attempts and irregularities involving gifts received during his presidency. In October 2024, the STF's First Panel upheld the decision to retain Bolsonaro's passport, effectively restricting his international travel.
This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources confirm Bolsonaro's physical attendance at Trump's inauguration.
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves to "Yes" if Bolsonaro is confirmed to attend in person.
Resolves to "No" if he does not attend for any reason, including legal restrictions or personal choice.
1,000
3.00Near zero chance now due the news:
On November 19, 2024, Brazilian federal police arrested five individuals suspected of plotting to assassinate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin prior to their inauguration in January 2023.
The suspects, primarily military personnel with Special Forces training, had devised a detailed plan named “Green and Yellow Dagger,” scheduled for execution on December 15, 2022. Their objective was to prevent the elected government from assuming office and to undermine Brazil’s democratic institutions.
The operation, conducted across the states of Rio de Janeiro, Goiás, Amazonas, and the Federal District, also uncovered plans to establish an “Institutional Crisis Management Office” to address issues arising from the coup. Additionally, there were intentions to detain and assassinate a Supreme Court justice if the coup succeeded.
These arrests are part of an ongoing investigation into attempts to disrupt Brazil’s democratic processes following the 2022 elections. Earlier reports indicated that former President Jair Bolsonaro and his associates were under scrutiny for allegedly conspiring to overturn the election results.