Background

Recent breakthroughs in fusion technology, including the achievement of fusion ignition at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, have sparked optimism in the field. The U.S. Department of Energy has set an official goal of creating a working commercial fusion reactor by 2035. Multiple private companies and organizations are actively working towards this timeline, with some planning initial grid delivery in the early 2030s.

However, significant technical challenges remain, including:

• Developing materials that can withstand intense heat

• Perfecting the conversion of neutron energy into heat

• Ensuring sustained reactor operation

• Managing tritium recycling

• Achieving true energy breakeven in a commercial setting

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if by December 31, 2035:

• A fusion reactor is connected to an electrical grid

• The reactor is selling electricity commercially to customers

• The reactor maintains net-positive energy output during operation

The market will resolve NO if these criteria are not met by the deadline. Research facilities, demonstration projects, or prototype reactors that are not selling electricity commercially do not count for resolution.

Considerations

• While multiple companies are targeting 2035, many experts consider this timeline ambitious. John Holdren, Co-Director of the Belfer Center's Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, has called such predictions "hype."

• The achievement of commercial fusion would represent a historic breakthrough in energy production, potentially making this a highly asymmetric bet

• Previous fusion timelines have consistently been overly optimistic, with the joke being that fusion is "always 30 years away"