Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes above 5,000 points on the last trading day of April 2025. If the closing value is 5,000 or below, the market will resolve to "No." The official closing value will be sourced from reputable financial news outlets or official stock exchange data.

Background:

As of April 16, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 5,275.70, experiencing a 2.2% decline due to concerns over U.S. trade restrictions. (apnews.com)

In November 2024, Goldman Sachs forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 6,500 by the end of 2025, anticipating continued U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings increases. (reuters.com)

However, recent market volatility, including a significant downturn in early April 2025 attributed to new U.S. tariffs and subsequent retaliatory measures, has introduced uncertainty into these projections. (en.wikipedia.org)

Traders should monitor ongoing economic policies, trade developments, and corporate earnings reports, as these factors will influence the S&P 500's performance leading up to the end of April 2025.