Will Dave Wasserman have incorrectly Seen Enough by the end of 2024?
Plus
10
Ṁ363Jan 1
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if @Redistrict tweets that he has seen enough in a race, and is ultimately wrong.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@evergreenemily To clarify, I don’t think anyone has comprehensively searched, so I still think there’s like a 20% chance that Dave was wrong like once
@Conflux With how many times he's said "I've seen enough" (it's gotta be hundreds by now,) the base rate of him being wrong about seeing enough might as well be 0%...
Related questions
Related questions
Will Dave Wasserman have "seen enough" in an election and be wrong in 2024?
9% chance
Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?
49% chance
Will Walt Mossberg return to X by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will Manifold be in the NYT again before the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Joe Biden before the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024?
96% chance
Will Matt Welch's prediction of deadly political violence in the US in 2024 hold up?
29% chance
Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?
36% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
26% chance
Will JD Vance be president of the United States before the end of 2033?
46% chance