I think it's a fairly determined outcome. If the Rams get the 1 seed, it's Stafford. If they don't and the Pats do it's Maye, and if the Bills do it's Allen. If none of the 3 get the 1 seed but still win their division it's probably Stafford unless Allen or Maye put up insane stats down the stretch and Stafford collapses (while getting the 2 seed) but the Bills are still unlikely to get the 2, and Maye is probably just slightly more unlikely to put up Allen level stats + voters are biased toward veteran status