Will Taiwan successfully demonstrate an anti-satellite capability before 2035?
Basic
1
Ṁ102035
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This would presumably be a rocket/missile, but doesn't have to be. The key point is whether Taiwan credibly demonstrates the ability to disable a satellite (by actually doing so).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
Will an anti-satellite weapon be used by 2025?
18% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
Will China attack Taiwan before 2025?
4% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
34% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
20% chance
[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
48% chance
Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?
4% chance
Will Taiwan buy any Air Defence System from Israel before 2035?
70% chance