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Conditional trigger
The market only resolves if Zohran Mamdani is sworn in as mayor in or before January 2026.
Resolution rule
Source: the 2029 New York City Housing & Vacancy Survey (NYCHVS) “Selected Initial Findings” total‐housing‐unit estimate for the entire city.
Timing: NYCHVS is field-collected Jan–Jun and, by city law, HPD/Census must release headline results in early February 2030.
Numeric resolution: the published NYCHVS estimate (no margin-of-error adjustments).
Fallback: if NYCHVS 2029 is canceled or never released, the market will use the 2029 American Community Survey 1-year estimates instead.
Why NYCHVS over ACS?
Promptness – first public count (Feb 2030) beats ACS's typical September release.
Research usage – statutory vacancy test; standard in NYC housing scholarship.
Survey methodology – door-to-door verification reduces undercounts of hidden or vacant units.
Benchmark for traders
NYCHVS 2023: 3,705,000 housing units
ACS 2023 1-year: 3,706,562 housing units ( +1,562; +0.04% higher than NYCHVS)
See also
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