Will any of the following Western countries abandon democracy by 2030?
Plus
12
Ṁ3762030
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.
List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
The abandonment has to be indefinite. If, say, a prime minister asserts emergency powers and then restores them within less than three months, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
19% chance
Which of these countries will leave the EU by 2050?
Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?
29% chance
Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
21% chance
Which countries will stop being "communist" by 2040?
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
6% chance
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
36% chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?
52% chance
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
13% chance