Will Donald Trump be sentenced to time in prison/jail, house arrest, both, or neither?
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to time in prison/jail, house arrest, both, or neither?
Basic
7
Ṁ2062031
3%
Behind bars
5%
House Arrest
85%
Neither
7%
Both
SPECIFICALLY regarding the indictment in Georgia over January 6th and the classified documents case.
Resolves to BEHIND BARS if Trump ends up being sentenced to serve time in a holding facility, such as a jail or prison.
Resolves to HOUSE ARREST if he is sentenced to serve a home confinement sentence.
Resolves to BOTH if he is sentenced to both. It is irrelevant which case(s) the house arrest and jail/prison sentence come from.
Resolves to NEITHER if Trump gets off, only receives a fine, etc.
Resolves when initial sentences for both cases are handed down. Does NOT change if a case is appealed. Only initial sentencing counts!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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