How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
11
Ṁ32272027
7%
44
7%
45
8%
46
13%
47
13%
48
19%
49
13%
50
7%
51
7%
52
7%
I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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