If Trump wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
Basic
9
Ṁ2502026
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves to the bond yield on the US 10-year government bond at the end of 2025, times ten. For example, a 4.80% bond yield would result in a "48%" resolution on this question, and so on. A bond yield of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
As a source of bond yields, I will use the the "10y" column on the US Dept of Treasury's published yield curve, here: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202403
I'll use the last published date in 2025.
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
10yr treasury yield hits 5.5% by EOY2025?
15% chance
If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
22% chance
Will US tariffs go up in 2025 iff Trump wins? (Up if Trump wins, or down if not.)
98% chance
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
45% chance
Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?
80% chance
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?
87% chance
Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?
30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
34% chance
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?