YES CRITERIA

• Acquisition – Amazon (or a wholly owned subsidiary) completes a purchase giving it >50 % of Anthropic voting equity.

• Acqui‑hire – A mainstream business/tech news outlet explicitly describes Amazon’s action as an “acqui‑hire” of Anthropic.

• Majority‑stake investment – Amazon raises its fully‑diluted voting stake to ≥50 %.

The date that the ≥50 % threshold is first crossed determines timing. Multiple transactions may add up.

NO CRITERIA / EXCLUSIONS

• Minority investments (<50 %).

• Partnerships, cloud‑provider agreements, reseller deals.

• Board seats, observer rights, unexercised options or warrants.

• Ordinary employee attrition.

• Any qualifying deal first announced after 31 Dec 2028.

RESOLUTION

• Requires publicly verifiable evidence (SEC filings, company press release, or reporting by Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ).

• Market may resolve early once evidence is public.

• If no YES condition is met by 31 Dec 2028 23:59 UTC, market resolves NO.

EDGE CASES

• If regulators block a signed deal before closing → NO.

• If Amazon’s stake exceeds 50 % and later falls below 50 % (all before 2029) → YES (once crossed, condition is met).