Will 1 or more person be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030
Will 1 or more person be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030
Basic
8
Ṁ96
2029
50%
chance

This market will resolve yes if it is reported (in a reputable fashion) by Wikipedia that 1 or more person is injured/killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece after the start date of this market. I will likely refer to this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute, however any Wikipedia page counts (I'm more or less intending to use it as a news aggregator in this case). If multiple reputable sources for >1 person being injured/killed are posted in the comments, I am likely to count that as well.

I will verify the source shown on Wikipedia, and will not resolve this market to yes if it seems like the source is false. If the reputability of the source becomes a contentious point, I will attempt to compensate an (uninvested) Admin to resolve this market.

I will not bet in this market.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

See also:


Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules