What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?
What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?
Basic
2
Ṁ352030
14%
0% to 5%
18%
5% to 15%
27%
15% to 25%
27%
25% to 50%
14%
Over 50%
Sodium-ion batteries appear to be in the process of commercialization, with multiple companies claiming to mass-produce them today. Meanwhile academics claim to have mitigated all their downsides except the lower energy density, and the cost is expected to be lower than lithium-ion. Not requiring lithium or cobalt in manufacturing also mitigates some geopolitical risks due to the uneven distribution of these minerals.
"Market share" is defined as "% of new EVs sold globally powered by sodium-ion batteries". If multiple types of batteries are used, the EV counts as powered by sodium-ion if this battery type accounts for at least 50% of the total capacity.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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