Will an AI like Operator work faster than human comprehension by May?
Will an AI like Operator work faster than human comprehension by May?
Plus
18
Ṁ2048May 3
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Roon tweet seems to suggest that significant speed-related improvements are coming to agents.
https://x.com/tszzl/status/1887571084926652755
Market resolves YES if any evidence of an agent that is approximately as powerful as Operator but operates at speeds that make it hard to comprehend is published by anyone, by or on April 30th AoE.
Resolution will mostly be subjective to me, but in the case of high stakes can be resolved by a poll.
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/launch?iso=20250501T00&p0=3399&msg=Operator+go+brrr&font=sanserif
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will I find practical use for agents like OpenAI's Operator in 2025?
44% chance
Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025?
11% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will AI figure out who has the highest processing speed to working memory ratio by 2030?
48% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
41% chance
🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2024?
43% chance
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
31% chance
Will OpenAI's Operator be available in the EU by the end of 2025?
71% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher than Human Level Reasoning Through Common Sense Questions, By 2024 End?
37% chance