Will peak annual oil production be known to have occured within the year 2029 or earlier?
"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2030 and 2031 from a peak in or before the year 2029, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached before January 1st, 2030.
Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2029 levels in the years 2030 or 2031.
World Annual Oil Production 1990-2022
from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html
1,000
3.00The IAE says 2028–2030 while the US EIA says 2050: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Says-Peak-Oil-Demand-Is-Not-Imminent.html
Standard Chartered says after 2035. GS says 2035. BP says 2025. The OPEC says not before 2045.
It's confusing that this is framed differently than your other markets, if I'm interpreting this correctly I would suggest changing the title to "Will global peak oil production occur in 2029 or earlier?"
And maybe create a multi-binary market next time
@ahalekelly You're absolutely correct and thank you for pointing it out in such a way. I am doing some experimenting with market design (title, description, time interval, etc.) with these questions. My instinct now is to change all the other titles to match this one (that seems to be the norm, and seems to work better in some ways). However, my other titles more closely match how I was and am framing the description criteria, so it made sense at the time.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00