Will humanity build a Dyson Sphere/Swarm before 2040?
Will humanity build a Dyson Sphere/Swarm before 2040?
Plus
28
Ṁ22932040
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By whatever means. Whether it be that aliens taught us, or we researched it ourselves, or what have you.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?
13% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2075?
12% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2150?
43% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2200?
55% chance
Dyson sphere/swarm before 2050?
12% chance
Before what year will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere?
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2100?
11% chance
Dyson sphere/swarm by 2100
38% chance
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?
5% chance
Will we have at least one Dyson sphere by 2030?
7% chance