Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?
2
Ṁ452030
15%
Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)
9%
Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)
15%
Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)
9%
Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)
9%
Economy (0 of 17 Resolved)
9%
Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)
9%
Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Manifold Brier)
9%
Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)
9%
Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)
9%
Media (0 of 8 Resolved)
Originally from this Article:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
Overall Competition:
That question (and this question) uses the time locked percentages from Manifold which was two weeks after Nates' article was published (and is why some questions are excluded).
Spreadsheet Used For Tracking
Live Manifold Tracking Market of Individual Questions:
Inverse Market for Manifold most Overperforming Nate:
Notes:
Excluded "Trump Cabinet" category because it only had 4 predictions and 2 were N/A'd due to the time difference
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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