Will model weights obtaining >90% on the Winogrande benchmark become publicly available in 2024?
Basic
3
Ṁ31Dec 31
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will use the leaderboard at https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-winogrande unless someone has a better suggestion. Model weights do not have to be licensed without restrictions but must be available for download.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
43% chance
Will there be a model that has a 75% win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4 as of January 1st, 2025?
70% chance
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)?
8% chance
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
55% chance
A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
65% chance
When will the first fully open-source advanced LLM (data, code, weights) be released?
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
60% chance
Will OpenAI make GPT3.5 or 4 model weights open before 2025?
7% chance
Will OpenAI open source the weights to one of the GPT family models in 2024?
9% chance
Will OpenAI release the source code and model weights of any of its legacy GPT-3 models before 2025?
8% chance