Will significant prosecutorial reform be enacted in South Korea by 2028?
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Plus
3
Ṁ390
2028
65%
chance

There's an interesting article by Snowden Todd that the reason for the South Korean coup attempt was due to structural issues with the SK judicial system: https://snowdentodd.substack.com/p/yoon-had-little-to-lose

In 2021, President Moon passed some prosecutorial reform (https://archive.is/rhlzE), but it seems not to have gone far enough, and some aspects were rolled back by Yoon. If I follow Snowden's argument correctly, this was in an attempt to weaponize the system against Lee Jae-myung and Moon, but given his unpopularity, he realized that once he was out of office he himself would become the next target.

It seems likely that he will be out of office soon and there will be a new presidential election shortly afterwards.

Resolves YES if one or more of the following become law by 2028:

  • Explicit priority to the CIO for corruption cases involving high-ranking officials, requiring prosecutors to transfer such cases over in cases of conflict.

  • Complete removal of investigative powers from prosecutors to the police or other specialized agencies for corruption investigations, including the ability to order supplementary investigations.

  • Removal of the powers of the president over promotion and appointment of senior prosecutorial roles, involving at least two of the following: the ability to veto promotion to senior prosecutor; powers of appointment for district chief prosecutors; appointment of high prosecutor office heads.

  • A randomized or non-discretionary system for assignment of cases, and removal of the Supreme Prosecutor's Office and District Offices' abilities to arbitrarily transfer cases, impose direct supervision of cases, and control local personnel appointments.

  • Reforms with impact greater than the above which break the incentive for prosecutors to enforce the will of the executive branch.

Resolves NO if no such reform is passed.

In case of controversy, this description will be fed to LLM to resolve.

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