Which parties will increase their percentage of the primary vote at the next Australian Federal Election?
Which parties will increase their percentage of the primary vote at the next Australian Federal Election?
Basic
3
Ṁ26Jun 6
63%
The Coalition (35.7% of the vote in 2022)
63%
Greens (12.25% of the vote in 2022)
63%
One Nation (4.96% of the vote in 2022)
50%
Liberal Democratic Party (1.73% of the vote in 2022)
50%
Animal Justice Party (0.6% of the vote in 2022)
27%
Labor (32.58% of the vote in 2022)
This question concerns only first party preferences in lower house contests at the next Australian Federal Election, as reported by the Australian Electoral Commission.
If a party ceases to exist the response will resolve N/A.
The Coalition answer here refers to the aggregated first party preferences of the Liberal Party, the Liberal National Party, the Nationals, and the Country Liberal Party.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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