Will there be another referendum in Australia on any issue before 2028?
Basic
6
Ṁ5222028
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia
On the 14th of October, 2023, Australia held its 45th referendum.
If a 46th referendum is held before the 1st of January, 2028, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
Must be a constitutional referendum that has some kind of bearing on constitutional issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be another referendum in Australia on any issue before 2026?
5% chance
Will there be another referendum in Australia on any issue before 2029?
11% chance
Will there be another referendum in Australia on any issue before 2027?
6% chance
Will there be an amendment to the US Constitution by 2028?
12% chance
Will the next Australian federal election be a double dissolution election?
1% chance
Will Australia hold a referendum on whether to retain the monarchy before 2030?
90% chance
Will Australia vote to become a Republic by end of 2025?
1% chance
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2025?
99% chance
Will the date of Australia Day change by the end of 2028?
10% chance
Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026?
4% chance