
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
Basic
6
Ṁ148Dec 31
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See my other questions for context. For this question to resolve YES, I have to be a co-author (or the sole author) of a finished research paper that is directly related to AI safety or AI alignment by the end of 2024. The paper need not be published in a journal for this to resolve, but a complete final version has to be produced.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
29% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
31% chance
Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025?
12% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?
22% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
69% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
40% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
68% chance
Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?
84% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
20% chance