Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030
Basic
7
Ṁ2192031
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution here is purely based on my personal judgement, though if someone wants to try and sway that judgement with empirical evidence that will probably be very effective.
Twitter thread that encapsulates my claim here:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
3% chance
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
70% chance
By what factor will the cost for SotA SWE-agents drop from 2024 to 2025?
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
8% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?
58% chance
How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2026?
63% chance
Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?
76% chance