SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.
17
Ṁ12022026
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
37% chance
Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?
34% chance
OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?
33% chance
xAI IPOs by EOY 2026?
12% chance
Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰
4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.
57% chance
Apple announces AI company purchase for over $500m by end of 2025
15% chance
Before 2026, will you be able to buy ads in a mainstream AI assistant?
12% chance
xAI launches its own browser by EOY2025?
7% chance
Will Cloud Providers see greater revenue growth in 2025 than AI companies?