By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time,
given a video of the screen.
By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time,
given a video of the screen.
7
Never closes
<10%
10-30%
30-50%
50-70%
70-90%
>90%
Starcraft 2 is a real time strategy game characterized by:
Continuous time play
Huge action space
Partial observability of enemies
Long term strategic play, e.g. preparing for and then hiding surprise attacks.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time,
given a video of the screen.
79% chance
By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the
best Go players have played.
47% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
51% chance
What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player
By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the
best Go players have played.
POLL
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
31% chance
By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.
77% chance
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
92% chance
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?
13% chance
Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
65% chance