In April 2025 will my "Circle" think the School of Moral Ambition (started by R. Bregman) is a success?
Basic
7
Ṁ135Apr 1
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A Circle is a group that consists of people going through the material created by the School of Moral Ambition. This group consists of a few people that are striving to be effective altruists, it will resolve on the basis of a poll I will post in our WhatsApp group.
We will use the following criteria for this, but in the end it is a subjective decision:
Does it still exist?
There was no widespread, lasting backlash against the ideas they are promoting? Or some other thing making it potentially net negative?
Have a lot of people really switched careers?
Do people still talk about it?
Was this the best use of time for the organizers?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will I be “successful” in 2024?
54% chance
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
41% chance
Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?
48% chance
Will I have close friends by 2025 ?
47% chance
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
31% chance
Will I have a positive view of effective altruism on December 31, 2024?
17% chance
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
66% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will a major rationalist/alignment grouphouse be formed in Ann Arbor, MI by EOY 2024?
46% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?