Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
8
Ṁ120
2027
24%
chance

This question concerns the potential candidacy of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), in the upcoming 2027 presidential race in France. Marine Le Pen has announced her intention to run in 2027, aiming for the presidency for the fourth time. However, her ability to stand as a candidate is currently uncertain due to a recent legal conviction that includes a five-year ban on holding political office, linked to a case of misappropriation of European Parliament funds. She has appealed this ruling, with the appeal trial expected in early 2026.

If the appeal fails, Marine Le Pen will be ineligible to run, and the RN’s current president, Jordan Bardella, has already positioned himself as a potential substitute candidate, with the party preparing for this contingency. Polls suggest Bardella might even perform as well or better than Le Pen in the election. Despite these challenges, Le Pen remains a central figure in her party and French politics, known for having softened the party’s image and for her resilience in previous presidential campaigns.

The question of her candidacy is thus not only about her personal legal situation but also about the strategic direction of the RN and the broader political landscape in France as the 2027 election approaches.

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