Primary Criterion: Formal Invocation of Article 5

• The resolution will occur as "Yes" if NATO formally and publicly invokes Article 5 in direct response to a Russian military action before January 21, 2025.

• The invocation must be confirmed by official NATO channels, such as announcements from the NATO Secretary General or a formal NATO press release.

Timeframe

• The resolution applies to events occurring up to 11:59 PM UTC on January 20, 2025.

• If Article 5 is invoked due to an event that occurred after this date, it will not impact the resolution of this question.

Verification Sources

• Acceptable sources for confirming Article 5 invocation include:

  • Official NATO press releases and statements from the NATO Secretary General.

  • Verified reporting from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, etc.).

  • Statements from NATO-member government officials if they clearly confirm Article 5 has been invoked due to Russian actions.

Exclusions and Clarifications

• Actions falling short of Article 5 invocation, such as:

  • Unauthorized airspace incursions, cyber-attacks, or limited border incidents that do not meet the threshold for Article 5,

  • Escalations leading only to diplomatic or economic sanctions without military response, will not result in a "Yes" resolution.

• Ambiguous Cases: If an action raises Article 5 discussions but does not lead to a formal invocation, the resolution will be "No."

Resolution Date

• If Article 5 is not invoked by January 21, 2025, the question will resolve to "No" on that date.