Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
Basic
25
Ṁ7492026
25%
chance
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Background
The FrontierMath benchmark, created by Epoch AI, is designed to test AI models' mathematical reasoning capabilities. As of December 2024, OpenAI's o3 reasoning model holds the current record with a score of 25.2%, while most other models score around 2% or less. This benchmark represents a significant challenge for current AI systems.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if any AI model achieves a score greater than 80% on Epoch's FrontierMath benchmark at any point during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025). The score must be:
Officially reported or acknowledged by Epoch AI
Achieved on the full benchmark test, not a subset
Achieved in a single run without human assistance
The market will resolve NO if no AI model achieves a score above 80% during 2025
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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