Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
Basic
6
Ṁ123Dec 31
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves if and when we have a language model that generates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research in any field and is also an agent.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI receive an IgNobel Prize in 2025?
29% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
67% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
61% chance
Will the first AGI be capable of love?
55% chance
Will a Nobel prize be awarded for the invention of AGI before 2050?
26% chance
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
74% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
40% chance