[Experimental]: Guessing Game
Basic
30
Ṁ3943
resolved Nov 12
Resolved
YES
Your favorite color is green.
Resolved
YES
You have ever had a good dream in your life
Resolved
YES
You think Puerto Rico should be a state
Resolved
YES
You do not identify as religious
Resolved
YES
You support one side more than the other in the ongoing 2023 Israeli-Palestinian war
Resolved
YES
You want to stay in academia for a long time
Resolved
YES
Evergreen has been to most of the U.S. states
Resolved
YES
You're liking your new city
Resolved
YES
You prefer big cities over small towns
Resolved
YES
You prefer the profile photo you have now than the Zelda one
Resolved
YES
Your first handheld gaming system was a game boy, game boy color, or game boy advanced
Resolved
YES
Evergreen has been to Mount Rainier
Resolved
YES
You do not have a favourite sport that you like to watch
Resolved
YES
You will pull the lever in the trolley problem
Resolved
YES
You do not like your parents
Resolved
YES
Evergreen has been to the Grand Canyon
Resolved
50%
You had no beforelife
Resolved
50%
You have a massive collection of plushies and figurines from your favorite games and animes
Resolved
NO
You've attended at least one Ren Fair
Resolved
NO
You did musical theater as a kid

Here's how this works:

  • Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.

  • Try to guess something that's not already known about me - guessing that I'm a trans furry probably just gets an N/A because I'm pretty sure the entire site knows that about me already.

  • If I don't feel comfortable answering the question in a public space like Manifold, I'll resolve the option to N/A.

  • Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and 50% if it was partly right and partly wrong.

  • Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. For obvious reasons, I won't bet on the options before resolving then.

  • This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.

Have at it!

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I got inspired by your makret and created mine with a little twist

as what? Is this some kind of gay joke that I am to straight to understand, or is it something else?

@justifieduseofFallibilism It's a trans joke.

@evergreenemily I suspected so

I'm not especially consistent about how I shower, I think.

I'm really on side Immediate Ceasefire Right The Fuck Now, but also my sympathies are more with the Palestinian people, not the Israeli government or the IDF. What's happening to civilians in Gaza is unacceptable. The way Israel treats Palestinians in general is unacceptable. The apartheid must end and a two-state solution is needed now.

Depends on the noise!

I'm not sure (I've been basically no-contact with them since mid-2019) but I'd estimate their combined income in 2019 at around $90,000 - which would be wealthy in most places, but not in Seattle.

@evergreenemily please enlighten me on how you are able to achieve this? (I personally have three email addresses, which have about 3500 unread emails to date between them in total.)

@duck_master How many Mails do you get each day? I might get around 6 on my personal mail on average and 1 on my university account. I check each mail the day it arrives so it is always at 0.

@JustifieduseofFallibilism This is exactly what I do. I rarely get anything important on my personal, and I get maybe 3 a day on my university email.

I really dislike their business practices (planned obsolescence etc.) but I don't think that dislike is irrational or particularly abnormal in its intensity.

Is there an easy way to tell what option got resolved to what (other than scanning the answers and seeing what resolved). Hovering over individual notifications doesnt seem to help me

@firstuserhere Also, it shows stars in the notification for each option resolved (indicating we can give star ratings) but as far as I can tell, there's no way to actually rate?

@firstuserhere I really wish there was...it seems to be a Manifold UI issue.

I (got a bit carried away and) added 20 new guesses to the market, all about travel and various places I may or may not have been! They'll resolve this evening.

@evergreenemily Update: I think I'll continue doing five at a time, actually. all 20 would be a lot

I wish there were an option to be notified when a new option got added to these markets instead of just when something resolves.

@Tetra I think from now on, when I see new options added, I'll post a comment about it so people know, and then only resolve them like an hour or two later.

It would be in my top 10! I think my #1 is Vancouver. In terms of countries outside of North America, New Zealand slightly edges out Iceland for me.

My sleep schedule is really inconsistent. I think I'm naturally a bit of an early riser, but my insomnia gets in the way pretty badly.

Close second is North Cascades, with Rocky Mountain and Yellowstone tied for third.

Activity's slowed down a bit, so I'm gonna wait a bit longer to resolve questions!

@evergreenemily Check out some new creative options on my market, it's switched up today

@firstuserhere Oh, fun. I should really submit some more options here once I've got the mana floating around!

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