Will there be a trans-outing webapp for uploading pics of people to see if they're trans (wth >80% accuracy) by EOY2026?
Will there be a trans-outing webapp for uploading pics of people to see if they're trans (wth >80% accuracy) by EOY2026?
Basic
2
Ṁ322027
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Why not have a popularity requirement (>X,000 MAU)? This almost certainly exists already in private. Public datasets for this already exist, sadly.
How will accuracy be measured for resolution? Whose measurements will you trust? Most people are not trans, so a website that is hardcoded to say “not trans” will be correct for >80% of users.
As written, this market is probably unresolvable.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a dating app implement radical transparency before 2026?
44% chance
Will a major photo-hosting site (google photos, imgur, flickr) add an "animate image" (like pika.art) by EOY 2025
50% chance
Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?
65% chance
Will AI image=> video be pwrfl enough to make a person in an image rotate/walk/change clothes by EOY 2025?
85% chance
Once it becomes possible for the general populace to upload themselves, will at least 50% of them have done so within 2 years?
12% chance
Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
91% chance
Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?
35% chance
Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?
80% chance
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
40% chance
Will we be able to transition Male bodies into Female bodies by 2030?
19% chance